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Global Birth Rates Plummet Below Stability Levels
16 Jun
Summary
- Two-thirds of countries now below replacement fertility rate.
- India's fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman.
- Global population expected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s.

Globally, fertility rates have fallen faster and spread further than anticipated, with two-thirds of the world's population now residing in countries below the 2.1 births per woman replacement level. India's fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman. China's rate is around 1, with births significantly lower than projected following its one-child policy. This demographic shift, previously seen in wealthy nations, now impacts countries across the globe. The decline is linked to improved infant survival, women's education, and empowerment.
While countries like Turkey and Hungary view declining birthrates as a threat to national survival, promoting pro-natalist policies, the UN now forecasts a global population peak of 10.3 billion in the 2080s. Supporting families with accessible policies and housing is suggested. However, managing ageing populations with shrinking workforces presents challenges. Nations must address social and political questions, including migration and the social contract, rather than attempting to reverse demographic trends.