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Genetic Factors and Brain Scans Key to Predicting Alzheimer's

Q: What factors does the new Alzheimer's prediction model consider?

The new prediction model combines a person's age, sex, genetic risk associated with the APOE gene, and brain amyloid levels detected through PET scans to calculate their likelihood of developing dementia within 10 years.

Q: How accurate is the new Alzheimer's prediction tool?

The study, which analyzed data from over 5,800 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Ageing, found that the incidence rate of dementia was twice as high among those who dropped out of the study compared to those who remained involved, suggesting the new tool provides a uniquely accurate picture of Alzheimer's progression.

Q: How can the Alzheimer's prediction model help patients?

Researchers say this risk estimate could eventually help people and their doctors decide when to begin preventative therapy or make lifestyle changes that may delay the onset of Alzheimer's symptoms, similar to how cholesterol levels help predict heart attack risk.

13 Nov

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Summary

Alzheimer's risk higher for people with certain APOE gene variant
New prediction model combines age, sex, genetics, and brain scans
Amyloid protein levels on PET scans are the most crucial factor

Genetic Factors and Brain Scans Key to Predicting Alzheimer's

As of November 13th, 2025, researchers have developed a new tool that can predict an individual's risk of developing dementia within the next 10 years. The prediction model combines several factors, including age, sex, genetic risk associated with the APOE gene, and brain amyloid levels detected through PET scans.

According to the study, published in The Lancet Neurology, the amyloid protein levels seen on PET scans are the most crucial element in determining a person's likelihood of developing Alzheimer's or other forms of cognitive decline. This new risk assessment could help individuals and their healthcare providers decide when to begin preventative therapy or make lifestyle changes that may delay the onset of symptoms.

The study builds upon decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Ageing, one of the world's most comprehensive longitudinal studies tracking thousands of participants over time. Researchers analyzed information from 5,858 participants, closely monitoring who developed dementia. They found that the incidence rate of dementia was twice as high among those who dropped out of the study compared to those who remained involved.

Experts hope this new predictive tool, currently undergoing further research, will lead to more personalized care for those at risk of developing Alzheimer's and other dementias. "Ultimately, our goal is to give people more time," said Dr. Ronald Petersen from the Mayo Clinic, "time to plan, to act and to live well before memory problems take hold."

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