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Bird Flu Pandemic: A Real Threat?
18 Dec
Summary
- H5N1 has infected 990 people globally since 2003, causing 475 deaths.
- US dairy herds and over 180 million birds were affected by the virus.
- New modeling simulates H5N1 outbreaks and early intervention strategies.
The threat of an H5N1 avian flu pandemic remains a significant concern for global health authorities. Since emerging in the late 1990s, the virus has spread across Asia and has occasionally infected humans. As of August 2025, the World Health Organization reported 990 human cases in 25 countries, resulting in 475 fatalities, a stark 48% fatality rate.
Recent outbreaks in the United States have affected over 180 million birds and more than 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states. At least 70 people, primarily farmworkers, have been infected, with one death recorded. The virus has also impacted wildlife, causing fatalities in animals at a rescue center in India.
To better understand and prepare for a potential H5N1 pandemic, researchers have developed advanced computer simulations. These models, utilizing real-world data and platforms originally designed for Covid-19, aim to predict outbreak trajectories and evaluate the effectiveness of early public health interventions, offering hope for prevention through enhanced surveillance and response.
