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UN Report: World Likely to Breach 1.5°C Climate Target in Next Decade
4 Nov
Summary
- World will exceed 1.5°C warming target, difficult to reverse
- Emissions cuts now can delay but not avoid overshoot
- COP30 climate summit faces pressure to spur faster action
According to a report released on November 4th, 2025 by the United Nations' Environment Programme (UNEP), the world has failed to meet its primary climate change target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The annual Emissions Gap report states that due to countries' slow action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is now clear the world will exceed this core goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, at least temporarily.
The report's lead author, Anne Olhoff, said that while deep emissions cuts now could delay when the overshoot happens, "we can no longer totally avoid it." The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. However, the latest emissions reduction pledges from countries, if met, would still result in 2.3-2.5°C of warming—around 0.3°C less than projected a year ago, but still far off the 1.5°C goal.
These findings add significant pressure to the upcoming UN COP30 climate summit, where countries will debate how to accelerate and finance faster action to curb global warming. The Paris Agreement temperature targets were based on scientific assessments of the worsening impacts of each increment of warming, such as more extreme weather events and the near-total loss of coral reefs at 2°C compared to 1.5°C.
