War Fuels Climate Crisis: Time Running Out

A conflict between the US-Israel and Iran has caused a systemic shock to the global economy and climate trajectory, occurring as the window to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is rapidly closing. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, has led to a more than 50pc surge in oil prices and dramatic spikes in gas prices in Europe and Asia, fueling inflation. This energy shock disproportionately impacts the Global South, where countries dependent on fuel imports face crises, reduced fiscal space for climate adaptation, and diversion of resources from resilience to subsidies. The war itself has accelerated the climate crisis, generating emissions equivalent to decades of those from low-emitting countries through military operations and infrastructure destruction, with reconstruction adding further carbon output. Militaries, as major institutional emitters, remain largely exempt from climate reporting, a loophole that is increasingly untenable. The indirect impacts are also severe, as energy insecurity prompts a reversion to fossil fuels, risking the locking in of carbon-intensive infrastructure. This cycle of conflict and fossil fuel dependence creates a feedback loop of destruction. Future strategic competition may involve control over energy routes and water systems, with regions like South Asia facing compounded threats from energy insecurity, water stress, glacial melt, and geopolitical conflict. The current escalation tragically occurs when global cooperation is most needed to confront the existential climate threat, wasting precious time the planet does not have. The climate cost of conflict is calculable, with wars in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia contributing millions of tonnes of carbon emissions, impacting glacial melt in crucial regions like the Hindukush Himalaya.