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UK Storms Brewing: First Autumn Storm 'Austen' Possible
19 Oct
Summary
- Deep low pressure system may bring first named storm of autumn.
- Significant drought persists in parts of England and Wales.
- Temperatures remain slightly below average for mid-October.
The UK could experience its first named storm of autumn as a deep low pressure system is forecast to cross the country later this week. This development is driven by a strengthening jet stream, influenced by temperature contrasts in North America, leading to turbulent weather conditions.
Many areas have endured a calm autumn with deficient rainfall, particularly across England and Wales, where some parts have seen only 10% of typical October rainfall. The Environment Agency has declared severe drought in southern England, highlighting the persistent dry conditions.
Despite the dry spell, temperatures have averaged 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal for October. However, the upcoming week is expected to be cooler, with temperatures generally remaining slightly below average for mid-October.
Forecast models indicate a possibility of the jet stream guiding a deep area of low pressure across the UK by Friday. This system could bring heavy rain and gales, with the highest risk of disruptive winds anticipated over southern England and Wales. Depending on its exact track, the storm might be named 'Storm Austen' by the UK Met Office or 'Storm Bruna' by France's MeteoFrance.
There is uncertainty regarding the storm's path, with some models suggesting a more northerly track that could bring gales to Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Met Office advises keeping updated on potential weather warnings as the forecast remains subject to change.
