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Homes Under Threat: Ground Shrinks, Dragging Foundations
11 Jun
Summary
- Millions of homes face risk from climate-related ground subsidence.
- Hotter, drier summers cause ground to shrink, dragging foundations down.
- London, Essex, and Kent are among the most vulnerable areas.
A significant number of homes across Great Britain are vulnerable to climate-induced subsidence, according to British Geological Survey (BGS) analysis. As hotter and drier summers become more frequent due to global heating, the ground beneath properties can shrink, consequently pulling down foundations. Scientists have identified London, Essex, Kent, and a corridor from Oxford to The Wash as particularly susceptible regions requiring mitigation measures.
Anna Harrison of the BGS explained that combining geotechnical data with projected rainfall and temperature scenarios pinpointed these vulnerable areas. London faces a "double whammy" of increased subsidence risk due to its higher building density and projected changes in weather patterns. Subsidence can manifest as diagonal cracks, sloping floors, and may necessitate expensive engineering work, significantly impacting property values and mortgage availability.
Projections indicate a rise in properties susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence. By 2070, approximately 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario, escalating to over 1.8 million under a medium emissions scenario, aligning with current global trajectories. Highly populated areas of London, such as Camden, Islington, and Barnet, are identified as most at risk, with over 26% of the capital's properties potentially affected by 2070 under the medium emissions scenario.
