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Super El Niño Threatens Delhi With Stubble Burning Season
23 Sep
Summary
- Super El Niño may reduce rain, worsening Delhi's air pollution.
- Farm fires peak during Diwali, coinciding with winter conditions.
- Stubble burning's impact on Delhi's PM2.5 is expected to rise.
The approaching farm fire season in India presents a complex challenge, with 47 cases already reported in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh between September 15 and September 23. Experts predict that the current Super El Niño phenomenon, an unprecedented event this century, will lead to fewer western disturbances. These disturbances typically bring rain that temporarily clears the air of pollutants.
This reduction in rain, coupled with the peak of stubble burning expected to coincide with Diwali on November 8, is cause for concern. Winter conditions, characterized by slower winds and lower boundary layer heights, will further trap pollutants. Punjab's significant monsoon rain deficit of over 35% and delayed crop sowing mean harvesting may extend into late October, potentially prolonging stubble burning beyond November.
The impact of farm fires on Delhi's PM2.5 levels is anticipated to be greater this year compared to recent years. While the number of farm fires has been low, daily incidents are expected to rise throughout October and peak in early November. The overall trend in crop burning incidents shows a decrease in some states like Punjab and Haryana, but an increase in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, highlighting the need for effective on-ground solutions for residue management.
