Soy Expansion Threatens Amazon Deforestation Truce

In November 2025, the soy moratorium, a voluntary agreement between soy traders, NGOs, and the Brazilian government to limit Amazon deforestation, is facing a potential suspension. The moratorium, established in 2006, has been instrumental in reducing deforestation linked to soy production in the region.

However, the Brazilian competition regulator CADE recently opened an investigation into the moratorium, suggesting it might be an illegal cartel. This has led to the suspension of the moratorium, though a judge later lifted that suspension. The situation remains in limbo, with the Supreme Court set to make a decision on the case between November 14-25, 2025.

The potential suspension of the moratorium comes at a critical time, as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 climate conference in Belém, just 500 kilometers from the city of Altamira. Experts warn that if the moratorium is lifted, soy production could rapidly expand into the Amazon, undoing years of progress in curbing deforestation. This could significantly undermine Brazil's climate commitments and its reputation as a global environmental leader.

The soy moratorium has been credited with reducing the value of deforestation in the Amazon, as soy has become the highest-value use of land in the region. Before the moratorium, about 30% of soy came from recently deforested land, but that figure has dropped to less than 1% today. Opponents argue the moratorium adds unnecessary bureaucracy, but proponents say it is essential to protect the Amazon, as Brazilian law alone is not enough to prevent illegal deforestation.