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Monsoon Shift: South Drenched as North-East Nears
6 Oct
Summary
- South monsoon shows no sign of withdrawal, heavy rain persists.
- New weather system may form in Bay of Bengal by mid-October.
- North-East monsoon onset might overlap with retreating monsoon.
The South-West monsoon is demonstrating a persistent presence, with its withdrawal line remaining stationary as heavy rains continue to affect the South Peninsula. This extended wet period is happening while the India Meteorological Department anticipates conditions favorable for the monsoon's retreat from other parts of India later this week.
A concerning development is the potential for an overlap between the retreating South-West monsoon and the advancing North-East monsoon. This transition phase is further complicated by the likely formation of a significant weather system over the Bay of Bengal, expected to materialize into a low-pressure area by mid-October.
Parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe experienced heavy to very heavy rainfall from Monday to Tuesday. This rainfall activity is projected to persist for the next few days, potentially delaying further monsoon withdrawal and impacting regions central to the upcoming North-East monsoon.
Neighboring Sri Lanka faces an uncertain rainfall outlook for October and November, with probabilistic guidance suggesting broadly equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. However, Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, along with Galle and Matara districts, may see increased chances of above-normal rainfall in October.
