Climate Change Shrinks Indus Rivers: Treaty in Peril

A groundbreaking study by IIT-Gandhinagar researchers Vimal Mishra and Urmin Vegad has quantified the impact of climate change on the Indus river system. Between 1951 and 2024, precipitation in the catchment areas of India's eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—decreased by 20%. Conversely, the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—experienced a statistically insignificant 6% reduction in rainfall, with their catchment areas remaining largely stable.

The study highlights a pronounced decline in annual water inflow to major dams on the eastern rivers, such as the Pong dam, which saw a 34% decrease between 1951 and 2020. Significant groundwater depletion was also observed in the Sutlej and Ravi sub-basins. In contrast, reservoir inflows for Pakistan's major dams on western rivers, like Mangla and Tarbela, remained mostly stable.

These findings provide crucial data supporting India's argument for renegotiating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. India has argued that climate change, population growth, and altered water demands necessitate modifications to the treaty. The study suggests that the altered hydro-climatic conditions may render the treaty unsustainable in the long run, particularly as it was established under significantly different mid-20th-century conditions.