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Monsoon Shift: South India braces for Northeast rains
5 Oct
Summary
- Southwest monsoon withdraws from Central and East India.
- Transition to Northeast monsoon expected around October 15.
- South Peninsula faces rain deficit due to El Niño impact.
The southwest monsoon has begun its withdrawal, with its retreating edge currently over Central and East India. As this season concludes, atmospheric conditions are setting the stage for the arrival of the Northeast monsoon over the South Peninsula. This transition typically occurs around October 15, and current forecasts suggest it may proceed on schedule this year.
An easterly wave moving from the South China Sea is expected to be the initial trigger, potentially forming a cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea. This system could then move into the Bay of Bengal, drawing north-easterlies towards the South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts. These developments are crucial for the South Peninsula, which has experienced a significant rain deficit following the influence of El Niño.
Despite the overall deficit, some areas have recently received heavy rainfall. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal reported heavy to very heavy rain in the 24 hours ending Monday morning. Isolated heavy rain is anticipated to continue over these regions and Kerala, Mahe, with potential for further intensification later in the week. Thunderstorms and lightning are also expected to accompany the transitional weather patterns.
