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India's Heat Gap: Pollution Masks Warming
20 Apr
Summary
- India's land mass warmed 0.88°C between 1980-90 and 2015-24.
- Air pollution and irrigation are key factors suppressing India's warming.
- Up to 200 million Indians could face lethal heat by 2030.
India's landmass has experienced a warming of 0.88 degrees Celsius from 1980-90 to 2015-24, a rate lower than the planet's average of 1.4 degrees Celsius. This anomaly is partly explained by the cooling effects of air pollution and intensive irrigation in regions like northern India.
A new paper from Harvard University's Salata Institute highlights that these cooling mechanisms are not guaranteed to persist. Reductions in air pollution due to clean-air policies could lead to increased daytime temperatures, particularly in winter over northern India.
Future projections are stark, with up to 200 million Indians potentially facing lethal heat conditions as early as 2030. This intensified heat stress could lead to significant job losses, affecting the estimated three-fourths of the workforce engaged in heat-exposed labor.
Adaptation to rising temperatures remains unequal, with only about 8% of households having access to air conditioning. The country faces immense challenges in building heat resilience, requiring coordinated efforts in finance, early-warning systems, and inter-departmental collaboration.
