India Faces 70% Drought Risk: El Niño Threatens Crops

India is now projected to have a 70% probability of experiencing a drought this monsoon season. This elevated risk is attributed to a strong El Niño phenomenon and a weakened Indian Ocean Dipole, impacting rainfall patterns significantly. August and September are expected to receive rainfall around 85% of the monthly average, contributing to a deficit that began in June.

States such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, along with southern regions, are identified as most vulnerable to this projected rainfall deficit. Historically, drought years have led to a 1% reduction in India's GDP, affecting various economic sectors including agriculture and the rural economy. The situation also carries the risk of an early monsoon withdrawal, a pattern observed in previous drought years.

Skymet Weather Services had initially flagged the possibility of a below-normal monsoon as early as December 2022, anticipating the El Niño's influence. While the Indian Ocean Dipole typically offers a balancing effect, its current weak state is insufficient to mitigate the impact of El Niño. This confluence of factors points towards a challenging period for India's agricultural output and overall economic stability.