Quiet Start to Hurricane Season, CSU Forecasts More

Colorado State University (CSU) has updated its influential hurricane outlook, maintaining a forecast for nine named storms, including four hurricanes, one of which may reach Category 3 strength or higher. This prediction comes despite the 2026 hurricane season experiencing its slowest start since 2009, with only two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, having formed by early August. The season, which officially began on June 1 and concludes November 30, typically sees its peak activity between mid-August and mid-October, with September 10th as its traditional apex.

Forecasters are closely watching the development of a strong El Niño, which typically generates hostile wind shear over the Atlantic's main hurricane development region. This atmospheric condition is expected to inhibit storm formation and bring a well-below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, experts caution that it only takes one storm to make a season active.

Despite the prevailing El Niño conditions and pockets of cooler-than-normal waters observed across the tropical Atlantic, warmer sea surface temperatures can still contribute to storm development. While current wind shear is high in the Caribbean, potentially shutting down activity there for the foreseeable future, the deep tropics may still see increased impacts as El Niño intensifies. Scientists suggest this quiet season could be comparable to those in 2013 and 2015, with potential lingering effects on the 2027 season.