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Global Temps Soar: 1.9C Rise Predicted in 5 Years
28 May
Summary
- Global average temperatures may reach 1.9C above pre-industrial levels.
- An 86% chance exists for a new warmest year before 2030.
- Arctic temperatures predicted to be 2.8C above average in next five winters.
Global temperatures are set to continue at or near record levels over the next five years, with predictions indicating a potential rise of up to 1.9C above pre-industrial averages. These findings from the UN's World Meteorological Organisation and the UK's Met Office suggest a high likelihood, an 86% chance, of a new record for the warmest year occurring before 2030.
This follows 2024's temporary breach of the 1.5C threshold. The analysis indicates a 91% probability that at least one year in the upcoming five will exceed this critical limit. Furthermore, there is a 75% chance that the five-year average from 2026-2030 will surpass 1.5C above the 1950-1990 average.
Arctic regions are expected to experience particularly severe warming, with winter temperatures predicted to be 2.8C above the 1991-2020 average. Northern Europe could face exceptionally wet winters, increasing flood risks. Scientists emphasize that these short-term predictions do not necessarily mean the 1.5C threshold has been permanently breached, as long-term warming is averaged over 20 years.
