El Niño Returns: Prepare for Global Weather Shifts

The return of El Niño has been confirmed, with forecasts indicating a high probability of a strong to very strong event by late fall 2026. This significant climate phenomenon is expected to cause widespread ocean warming, leading to intense marine heat waves. These events, characterized by prolonged periods of extreme ocean temperatures, pose a severe threat to marine ecosystems and global fishing industries. Already high global ocean temperatures will likely be pushed to breaking points.

Marine heat waves can impact ocean life in devastating ways. Organisms adapted to specific temperatures may struggle to survive, leading to metabolic issues and death. The U.S. West Coast is particularly vulnerable as weakened winds reduce upwelling of cold water, exacerbating coastal heat waves. Even seafloor temperatures are affected, with these 'bottom marine heat waves' sometimes being more intense and longer-lasting than surface events, as evidenced by declining snow crab populations.

Forecasting models offer a three-to-six-month advance warning for marine heat waves, with El Niño years yielding greater accuracy. Current predictions suggest several marine heat waves developing by the end of 2026, potentially affecting nearly half the global ocean. The California and Mexican coasts are at high risk, as are the Indian and Southern Oceans. While conditions may change, preparation is strongly advised.