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El Niño Returns: Global Weather Shake-Up Imminent
10 Apr
Summary
- El Niño, a warm phase of ENSO, may emerge by May-July.
- Drier, warmer weather expected in North US and Canada.
- Southern US may see wetter conditions during El Niño.
The climate pattern known as El Niño is projected to emerge between May and July, with a 61 percent chance of its development persisting through the end of the year. El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and occurs when Pacific trade winds weaken, causing warm surface waters to shift eastward.
During an El Niño event, the Pacific jet stream typically shifts southward. This shift is associated with drier and warmer weather conditions across the Northern United States and Canada. Conversely, the Southern U.S. is likely to experience wetter weather patterns. El Niño can also influence hurricane season activity, typically reducing it in the Atlantic but increasing it in the Pacific.
While ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present and expected through April-June, forecasters note a one in four chance of a "very strong El Niño." Stronger ENSO events are linked to more extreme weather impacts, potentially leading to severe droughts in some areas and intense flooding in others. Experts also caution that other factors, such as marine heat waves and climate change, can modify typical El Niño or La Niña patterns.
