Home / Environment / El Niño Looms: Record Heat Expected by 2027
El Niño Looms: Record Heat Expected by 2027
8 Feb
Summary
- El Niño forming in the Pacific could cause record global temperatures.
- Scientists caution that predicting El Niño remains uncertain.
- A developed El Niño event may significantly impact 2027 temperatures.
Weather agencies and climate scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean for signs of an El Niño forming, a development that could lead to record-high global temperatures by 2027. Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology have noted that some climate models forecast an El Niño, though they caution that these predictions come with uncertainties.
Experts indicate that while precursors for El Niño are present, including significant warm water accumulation in the western tropical Pacific, it remains too early to confirm its development. The cycle of ocean temperatures, known as the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), is linked to global extreme weather events. Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific characterize an El Niño, which typically boosts global temperatures.
Should an El Niño event develop, its primary impact on global surface temperatures is expected to be felt in 2027, potentially setting a new record for the hottest year. However, scientists also note that the strong influence of global heating, primarily driven by fossil fuel burning, is increasingly overshadowing year-to-year climate variability, meaning record temperatures might occur even without a strong El Niño.
