El Nino's Record Strength Looms

A rapidly intensifying El Nino in the tropical Pacific is showing signs of becoming the strongest on record. Its peak is anticipated between November and December of this year. While not yet officially declared, experts predict a high probability of a strong event developing.

This El Nino phenomenon is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These warm waters release heat, altering atmospheric circulation and leading to extreme weather events globally. A notable aspect is the 'lag effect,' where the most substantial climate impacts often occur months after the sea surface temperatures begin to decline.

For China, the summer following an El Nino often brings a stronger subtropical high, increasing flood risks in the Yangtze River basin. South China may experience wetter autumns, and winters are likely to be warmer than average. The subsequent year could see significantly above-average rainfall, particularly in the Yangtze basin, heightening flood control concerns and heat wave intensity.