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El Nino Threatens India's Winter Harvest
19 Sep
Summary
- El Nino conditions are expected to impact India's rabi crops.
- Drier winter and early summer heat pose risks to crop yields.
- Monsoon rainfall is currently 15% below the long-term average.
India's rabi crops face significant risks due to prevailing El Nino conditions. Experts anticipate a drier winter, potentially limiting crucial soil moisture necessary for crop growth. Furthermore, an early onset of summer temperatures could accelerate crop development, adversely affecting the final yield and quality.
These concerns are amplified as cumulative monsoon rainfall has registered a 15% deficit compared to the long-term average as of September 18. This rainfall shortfall, particularly in southern, eastern, and northeastern regions, has impacted agricultural activities. Kharif acreage has seen a slight dip, with rice cultivation notably reduced, while pulses acreage has marginally increased.
Economic implications are beginning to surface, with vegetable prices showing a substantial year-on-year jump of 36.1%. Edible oil inflation also remains elevated, climbing 13.8% from the previous year. While cereal and pulse prices have remained relatively stable, the overall impact on food prices could escalate if rabi crop yields are compromised.
