El Nino's Fury: Global Warming Fuels Extreme Weather

The Earth's natural El Nino weather cycle is now being amplified and shaped by a warming planet. Meteorologists note that an unusual recent twist in the El Nino and La Nina cycle is a key factor explaining a significant spike in global temperatures observed over the past three years, continuing through 2025. This warming trend is also prompting updates to how El Nino and La Nina are defined.

Scientists have altered definitions for El Nino and La Nina due to rapid weather changes driven by global warming. Increased ocean temperatures have led the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to change its calculations for these weather patterns. This adjustment is expected to classify more events as La Nina and fewer as El Nino, reflecting altered warming of tropical waters.

A recent study in Nature Geoscience highlights an increased 'Earth's energy imbalance' in 2022, meaning more heat is being trapped. Researchers attribute about three-quarters of this imbalance to a combination of human-caused climate change and the transition from a three-year La Nina to an El Nino. While El Nino warms equatorial Pacific waters, La Nina cools them, with both significantly altering global weather.

The unusual 'triple dip' La Nina from 2020 to 2023 trapped more energy, contributing to the hotter temperatures. Scientists explain that when transitioning from La Nina to El Nino, trapped heat is released. Approximately 23% of the energy imbalance driving recent high temperatures stems from this extended La Nina, with over half coming from fossil fuel emissions.