UN Warns: El Nino 'Pours Fuel on Warming World'

An El Nino weather event is now 80% likely to occur between June and August 2026, according to scientists at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

This phenomenon, characterized by the warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, is predicted to elevate global temperatures. It will compound existing human-driven climate change, leading to more extreme weather conditions worldwide.

Forecast models suggest a high probability of El Nino persisting until at least November 2026. The UN has characterized this as an "urgent climate warning," given the world's current vulnerability to severe weather impacts stemming from fossil fuel pollution.

While the peak strength and precise timing remain uncertain, current models indicate the event will likely be at least moderate, possibly strong. This follows the most recent El Nino, which contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record, surpassing the critical climate threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that El Nino "will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," increasing the severity and reach of weather impacts. He called for urgent climate action, including ending fossil fuel dependence and accelerating the transition to renewable energy.

Observations in late April to mid-May showed sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific approaching El Nino thresholds. These are being fueled by unusually warm subsurface ocean conditions, creating a substantial heat reservoir. Another climate model focusing on atmospheric conditions also supports the development of El Nino.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo advised preparedness for a potentially strong El Nino, which could worsen drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land and in the ocean. She highlighted the importance of advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings for saving lives and mitigating economic impacts.