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Bay of Bengal Cyclone Alert: Third Storm Brewing?
13 Nov
Summary
- A new low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a cyclone.
- This would be the third cyclone in succession during the North-East monsoon.
- Oceanic conditions and MJO pulse are highly favorable for cyclone formation.
A potential cyclone is forming over the Bay of Bengal, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing an alert for a new system developing by Monday evening. This nascent low-pressure area is forecast to strengthen into a depression by Sunday and could rapidly evolve into a powerful cyclone, driven by exceptionally warm ocean waters.
This emerging storm would mark the third cyclone in rapid succession during the current North-East monsoon season, following severe cyclones Arnab and Murasu last month. The ongoing active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Bay is providing favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, enhancing atmospheric circulation and reducing disruptive wind shear.
Global forecasting models, including those from ECMWF and Google DeepMind, are increasingly signaling development. Google DeepMind's outlook suggests a high probability of formation by Saturday/Sunday, with a significant chance of it becoming one of the strongest systems over the Bay. While the IMD has not yet provided an official trajectory, some projections indicate a potential landfall along India's east coast, possibly Andhra Pradesh.
Beyond its potential intensity, the developing system is expected to influence rainfall across the southern peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers are predicted for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, and Lakshadweep in the coming days. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema may also experience increased rainfall, with isolated heavy rainfall possible by Wednesday and Thursday.
