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La Niña Years Warmer Than Ever: Climate Crisis Accelerates
15 Jan
Summary
- Recent La Niña years show unprecedented warming, exceeding pre-industrial averages.
- Reduced atmospheric sulphate pollution, though healthy, is accelerating global warming.
- The 1.5°C warming threshold may be crossed by the end of this decade.
The world has experienced significantly warmer La Niña years recently, with 2022 recording 1.15°C above pre-industrial averages. This warming trend has continued, with the past three years averaging between 1.48°C and 1.5°C warmer, a notable departure from earlier decades. Scientists attribute this surge to persistent increases in greenhouse gas emissions and a surprising side effect of pollution reduction.
The decline in atmospheric sulphate particles, primarily from stricter regulations on cargo ships and power plants, is contributing to accelerated warming. While beneficial for human health, sulphates previously helped reflect solar radiation. Concurrently, new research suggests Earth's climate may be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously thought, with some estimates indicating a potential rise exceeding 2°C by mid-century.
This rapid warming pace places the 1.5°C global temperature limit, established by the UN Paris agreement, at risk of being breached by the end of this decade. Forecasters anticipate El Niño's return and expect 2026 to be another record-breaking warm year, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies to manage projected warming.
