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Nature Retracts Flawed Climate Economic Damage Paper
3 Dec
Summary
- A Nature study estimating huge economic damage from climate change was retracted.
- A data error concerning Uzbekistan skewed the study's findings significantly.
- The original paper's estimated 62% economic decline was likely closer to 23%.
A significant study published in the journal Nature, which had projected severe economic consequences from climate change, was retracted this week. The original findings suggested an alarming 62% reduction in global economic output by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. However, subsequent scrutiny revealed critical flaws in the data used for Uzbekistan, which disproportionately influenced the study's conclusions.
When economists re-examined the data, excluding the problematic figures from Uzbekistan, the projected economic damages were considerably lower, falling closer to 23%. This revised estimate aligns more with previous research, though experts still stress that such a decline would be devastating. The retraction highlights ongoing challenges in accurately modeling the complex interplay between climate change and the global economy.
The original paper, led by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, employed novel methods to capture climate impacts. Despite its ambitious scope and wide citation, criticisms regarding data correlations and methodological choices led to its retraction. The authors plan to revise and resubmit the paper, while the broader scientific community continues to grapple with quantifying climate-related economic risks.
