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New Science: Climate Sensitivity Higher Than Feared
9 Sep
Summary
- Falling sulphur pollution is removing a cooling effect, speeding warming.
- Global temperatures may be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than thought.
- Earth's energy imbalance has roughly tripled over the past two decades.
Recent scientific findings suggest that the reduction of sulphur pollution, a byproduct of burning fossil fuels, has inadvertently accelerated global warming. Sulphur emissions form particles that reflect sunlight, acting as a cooling agent. As clean-air policies worldwide have reduced sulphur pollution, this cooling effect has diminished.
This phenomenon has contributed to a significant increase in Earth's energy imbalance, with the planet absorbing roughly triple the energy it did two decades ago. Scientists now believe the climate may be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously modeled.
Furthermore, changes in cloud cover, potentially influenced by global warming itself, may be allowing more sunlight to reach the Earth's surface. This creates a feedback loop, exacerbating warming.
New climate models that best reflect recent warming trends also indicate a higher climate sensitivity. This suggests that current emissions pathways could lead to warming closer to 3.5°C by the end of the century, rather than the previously estimated 2.8°C.
