New Islands Surface: Caspian's Alarming Retreat

Parts of the northern Caspian Sea are at risk of an Aral Sea-like desiccation, scientists warn. The world's largest inland body of water is experiencing a significant decline in water levels, with new islands recently discovered in its shallow northern sector along Kazakhstan's coast. This phenomenon, highlighted by volunteer activist Daniyar Akimzhanov, indicates a broader transformation.

The Caspian Sea's water balance, primarily influenced by river inflow and evaporation, has shifted due to rising regional temperatures and reduced precipitation. Human activities, including damming rivers and water extraction for irrigation, further exacerbate the decline. Instrumental observations show a drop of 2.45 meters in the Kazakh sector between 1996 and 2025.

The shrinking sea poses severe threats to wildlife, particularly the Caspian seal, whose population has plummeted. Their crucial island haul-out sites are diminishing, forcing them into areas with greater human activity. Coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and wetlands are also negatively affected by the retreating waters.

Climate projections suggest a continued decline throughout the 21st century, potentially exposing vast areas of seabed. While the central and southern basins are deeper, the northern Caspian's shallow nature makes it vulnerable to desiccation. Coordinated action by the five bordering states is deemed essential for effective water resource management and adaptation measures.