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Hurricane Season Begins: Potential for Slow Development
1 Jun
Summary
- The Atlantic hurricane season officially began, with early development possible.
- A shifting Madden-Julian Oscillation could influence tropical storm formation.
- Florida permanently exempts sales tax on key hurricane supplies.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has commenced, with forecasters observing potential for slow tropical development during the second week of June. This activity may be influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) shifting from the Pacific to the Atlantic basin.
AccuWeather experts are closely monitoring areas in the Gulf and waters off Central America and Mexico, where conditions are expected to become more favorable for development. While strong wind shear is currently inhibiting significant activity in the Gulf, the shifting MJO could strengthen nascent tropical disturbances.
Meteorologists are tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic, a common occurrence as this season's first wave appeared in May. These waves serve as the precursors for many hurricanes, with approximately 10% to 15% developing into full tropical systems.
For Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in Florida, the probability of experiencing a named storm in 2026 is 28% and 26% respectively. The chances of an actual hurricane are estimated at 12% for Escambia and 11% for Santa Rosa, with major hurricane probabilities at 5% and 4%.
In a significant policy change, Florida has permanently exempted sales tax on key hurricane supplies. This includes items such as batteries, tarps, and generators, moving away from the previous system of limited tax-free weekends for these essential goods.
