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2026 on Track for Record Heat: Is 1.5°C the New Normal?
18 Jul
Summary
- 2026 could rank as the second warmest year on record.
- The 1.5°C warming threshold is increasingly becoming the norm.
- Past three years were the warmest on record, setting alarming trends.
The year 2026 is poised to be among the warmest on record, potentially ranking second warmest, with scientists indicating that surpassing this distinction is not impossible. This projection holds significant implications for understanding the ongoing climate crisis.
The first half of 2026 has already experienced considerable warming, with average temperatures up to July 14 being 1.45°C above the pre-industrial average. This places it as the third warmest year for this period, trailing only 2024 and 2025.
Achieving a ranking of second warmest or even breaching the 1.5°C threshold for the annual average appears highly probable for 2026. The required warming for the remainder of the year to reach these benchmarks is relatively modest, especially considering recent warming trends and the influence of climate phenomena like El Nino.
Past years offer a concerning precedent. 2023 and 2025 recorded warming levels of 1.48°C and 1.47°C respectively, while 2024 was the warmest year on record. The average warming from 2023 to 2025 stands at 1.52°C, suggesting that 1.5°C may be establishing itself as a new baseline.
Even with La Nina-like conditions present in early 2026, temperatures neared the 1.5°C threshold. The subsequent arrival of El Nino in May indicates that maintaining a warming range between 1.50°C and 1.56°C for the rest of the year is highly feasible, potentially leading to 2026 being the warmest year recorded.
