Axial Seamount Inflation Slows, Delaying Predicted Eruption Timeline

On November 11, 2025, a magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck the Oregon Coast, just 185 miles from the coastal town of Barview. The quake's epicenter was also roughly 200 miles from the Axial Seamount, a highly active Pacific Northwest volcano that last erupted in 2015.

While this was the third major seismic event in the area in two weeks, researchers say the tremor is not the tipping point that will set off the volcano. According to geophysics expert Bill Chadwick from Oregon State University, the major quakes are tied to the nearby Blanco Fracture Zone, where tectonic plates slide past each other, rather than directly to the Axial Seamount.

Chadwick and his team have been closely monitoring the Seamount, as the rate of tiny earthquakes around the volcano's mouth has steadily increased, a sign that an eruption could be imminent. However, the researchers have now updated their prediction, likely delaying the countdown to an eruption.

The Seamount's inflation rate, a key indicator of an impending eruption, is currently only around six inches per year—much slower than the 12 inches researchers had expected. At this rate, the Seamount likely won't reach the inflation threshold for eruption until mid-to-late 2026, rather than by the end of 2025 as previously predicted.

Additionally, the number of earthquakes around the volcano has actually fallen to their lowest levels since July 2025, further suggesting the eruption timeline has been pushed back. While the Seamount is still expected to erupt eventually, spewing out over a billion cubic feet of lava, the current data indicates the event is not as imminent as once feared.