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UBS Predicts Gold Prices to Reach $3,700 by Q3 2026
19 Aug
Summary
- UBS raises 2026 gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce
- Sticky U.S. inflation and Fed policy easing to support prices
- Central banks' strong gold demand expected to continue
According to the latest analysis from UBS strategists, the outlook for gold prices remains highly optimistic. As of August 19, 2025, the bank has significantly raised its forecast for 2026 spot gold prices, predicting the precious metal will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the third quarter.
This upgraded forecast comes after a period of volatility in the gold market, with prices initially rallying in the first half of the year before facing some headwinds. However, UBS strategists see ample momentum to carry gold higher over the next year, driven primarily by developments in the United States.
The bank's analysts believe a cocktail of factors will support gold prices, including sticky U.S. inflation, below-trend economic growth, the Federal Reserve resuming policy easing, and further weakness in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, they note that investors' concerns over the U.S. fiscal position and potential changes in Fed leadership could also drive increased demand for the non-interest-bearing asset.
Notably, UBS also expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong, albeit slightly below the near-record levels seen in the previous year. This sustained demand from global central banks, seeking to hedge against inflation and diversify their portfolios, is expected to be a key pillar of support for the gold market in the coming years.
