How does the Fed's July meeting minutes relate to the upcoming Jackson Hole speech?

The July meeting minutes, due to be released on August 20th, 2025, may provide an early indication of whether the Fed will cut rates in September, ahead of Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

What are the views of Governors Waller and Bowman on interest rates?

Governor Waller has argued for gradual rate cuts of up to 1.5 percentage points, saying the "wait and see approach is overly cautious." Governor Bowman has stated that tariff-driven price increases are a one-off shock that shouldn't prevent easing.

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Rare Fed Split Signals Potential Rate Cut in September

Q: What was the outcome of the July Federal Reserve meeting?

The July Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare dissent from two sitting governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who voted to cut rates by a quarter point instead of keeping them steady.

20 Aug

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Summary

Dual dissent from Fed governors for first time since 1993
Waller and Bowman favor gradual rate cuts, citing inflation and jobs
Minutes may reveal other officials' views on balancing risks

Rare Fed Split Signals Potential Rate Cut in September

The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, set to be released on August 20th, 2025, may provide an early indication of whether the central bank will cut interest rates in September. The July meeting was notable for a rare dissent from two sitting Fed governors, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple officials broke with the majority.

Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted to cut rates by a quarter point, rather than keeping them steady in the 4.25-4.5% range. Waller has since argued for gradual rate cuts of up to 1.5 percentage points, saying the "wait and see approach is overly cautious" and risks falling behind the curve. Bowman has stated that tariff-driven price increases are a one-off shock that shouldn't prevent easing.

The minutes may reveal how other Fed officials responded to the dissenters and provide more detail on the committee's views about inflation, tariffs, and a weakening labor market. Investors are currently pricing in an 85% chance of a September rate cut, down from nearly 100% earlier this month.

The dissents come amid sustained pressure from President Donald Trump, who has called for substantial rate cuts while criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's leadership. Powell, who was appointed by Trump, has said he plans to complete his term, which expires in May 2026.

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