MP Materials Surges on Promising Deals and Expansion Prospects

As of August 1st, 2025, Jefferies has upgraded MP Materials to Buy from Hold, citing the market's undervaluation of the company's U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) support and future international growth prospects. The brokerage has raised its price target for MP shares to $80, up from $33 previously.

MP Materials' shares have recently doubled in value after securing supply agreements with the DoD and tech giant Apple, which Jefferies says validates the company's scale and technology. The firm believes the DoD agreement alone could have lifted the valuation of MP's Mountain Pass facility by $27 if production were accelerated to 2028.

Looking ahead, Jefferies sees potential for over 10 additional original equipment manufacturer (OEM) offtake deals through 2028, further reinforcing MP's position as a key rare earth supplier outside of China. The brokerage also flagged global expansion as an underappreciated tailwind, with a 90% probability that MP finalizes a $1.5 billion joint venture in Saudi Arabia by the end of 2026 and a 50% chance of a European Union project between 2027 and 2029. These international projects could add an estimated $27 per share in value, according to Jefferies.

Additionally, the firm includes $15 of upside in its new price target from a potential 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut, noting that MP may trade like a "convertible bond" due to the downside protection from its DoD agreement. Jefferies sees further upside if magnet pricing strengthens, central banks ease more aggressively, or MP announces expansion projects with strong returns.