10% Yields? Expert Warns of Unprepared Market

Benchmark borrowing costs are reaching multimonth highs as oil prices fuel inflation fears. As of 2026-07-25, the 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 4.703%, its highest point since mid-January 2025. This trajectory may cause stock markets to become increasingly volatile, especially if the yield approaches 5%.

However, Russell Clark, founder of Brumby Capital, predicts an astonishing 10% yield for the benchmark. He argues that investors remain trapped in outdated deflationary thinking from the past four decades. Clark believes the economic architecture established in the 1980s, which favored capital over labor through globalization and restrained wage growth, is now being dismantled.

Clark identifies the younger generation's struggle with housing affordability as a critical factor. He suggests that addressing this requires significant wage growth, which in turn necessitates policy shifts to prevent capital from flowing into assets like property. Instead, savers would need incentives to hold cash, a reversal of previous economic trends.

This structural pivot towards prioritizing labor and managing the cost of living is creating a persistently inflationary environment. Government commitments to massive infrastructure projects, supply chain reshoring, and populist economic measures are contributing to this elevated inflation outlook, making Clark's prediction of 10% Treasury yields a topic of serious consideration.