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US Inflation Data Looms: Markets Brace for PCE Report
5 Dec, 2025
Summary
- Key PCE inflation data for September due Friday evening.
- US companies announced over 1.1 million job cuts by November.
- Odds of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next week remain high at 87%.
Anticipation is building as markets await the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday evening. This report is critically important for the Federal Reserve, serving as its most significant data point before the upcoming policy decision. Wall Street navigated a narrow trading range on Thursday, reflecting investor caution ahead of this key economic indicator.
Conflicting signals from the labor market also characterized Thursday's trading. Job cut announcements by US companies surpassed 1.1 million through November, the highest since 2020 and a substantial increase from the previous year. Conversely, initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, a figure economists attributed partly to holiday-related fluctuations.
Despite these mixed labor market indicators, the probability of the US Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut next week remains high, standing at 87%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar index climbed back above 99, and gold prices maintained their position above $4,200 per ounce.
