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ADP Report Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets
4 Dec, 2025
Summary
- US private firms cut 32,000 jobs in November.
- Markets now price in an 89% chance of Fed rate cut.
- Asian markets expected a mixed opening on Thursday.
US private sector employment saw an unexpected decline in November, with companies cutting 32,000 jobs. This figure represents a sharp decrease from the prior month's gains and fell short of economists' expectations, providing the Federal Reserve with its final jobs report before its policy meeting.
Following the disappointing ADP employment data, market sentiment has shifted considerably. The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut at its upcoming December 9-10 meeting has surged to 89%, a significant increase from just two weeks ago. This expectation is heavily influencing market behavior.
In anticipation of these developments, Asia-Pacific markets are set for a mixed opening on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures suggest a stable start, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures point to a higher open. Australia's ASX/S&P 200 saw a modest rise in early trading.
