US Economy: Slow Growth, Modest Job Gains Ahead

US economic growth is poised for a modest uptick to 2% next year, according to a survey of economists. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by increased personal spending and business investment. Despite this positive outlook, job creation is projected to remain slow, with an unemployment rate expected to climb to 4.5% by early 2026.

Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are identified as a significant drag on economic expansion, potentially reducing growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point. Concerns about tougher immigration enforcement also loom, while stronger productivity is seen as a key factor for exceeding growth expectations.

The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with cautious monetary policy, with a quarter-point interest rate cut anticipated in December. Further rate reductions next year are forecast to be limited, as inflation is predicted to remain elevated. Job growth is forecast to average around 64,000 positions per month.