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US Economy: Growth to Beat Forecasts in 2026?
20 Nov
Summary
- Economic growth in 2026 is projected to exceed consensus expectations.
- Anticipated Fed easing and AI's evolving impact to drive future growth.
- Near-term data may appear weak, but a stronger second half of 2026 is expected.
Projections indicate that US economic growth in 2026 is poised to surpass current consensus estimates, defying expectations of a slowdown. This optimistic outlook stems from a combination of factors, including anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve and the ongoing, yet partial, adaptation to significant trade and AI-driven changes. While the immediate future might present some weaker economic data, a more substantial recovery is expected as 2026 progresses.
The immediate period may see volatility, with some anticipating subpar payroll numbers. However, the underlying trend points towards a more resilient economy. Inflation, though above target, is expected to moderate with further monetary easing. This suggests that the economy is navigating a higher cost environment and a lower neutral growth rate, yet holds potential for outperformance, particularly when considering global economic partners.
As 2026 unfolds, the US economy is expected to demonstrate greater strength than many economists predict. Asia, including China, is also anticipated to show resilience, contributing to a global economic picture that could mirror the stability seen in the current year. This anticipated growth trajectory may lead to reduced Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar, supporting overall risk assets.
