UK Population Set to Shrink After Mid-2050s

New projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest the UK's population growth will decelerate, with deaths anticipated to surpass births each year starting in 2026. Between 2024 and 2034, the population is expected to increase by approximately 1.7 million, reaching 71 million, a revised figure lower than previous estimates. This downward revision is primarily attributed to a recent steep decline in net migration and anticipated lower future fertility rates.

The overall UK population is now projected to peak around the mid-2050s, specifically in 2054 with 72.5 million people, before beginning to decrease. This contrasts sharply with earlier projections that anticipated continued growth until 2096. Net migration is identified as the sole driver of population increases in the coming decades, with an estimated 204,000 net migrants in the year to June 2025, a significant drop from the previous year.

Further analysis indicates differing peak times across the UK's constituent countries. England's population is forecasted to peak in 2056, while Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are expected to reach their peaks earlier. The demographic shift also points to a rising proportion of the population of pensionable age by 2034, with a corresponding decrease in the proportion of children under 16.