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Tesla's Q4 Sales: Wall Street Eyes Slowdown Ahead
17 Dec
Summary
- Tesla's Q4 sales are expected to be around 450,000 units.
- Slowing EV demand and increased competition impact Tesla's sales.
- Tesla's brand value and net purchase intent have reportedly recovered.
Tesla is set to announce its fourth-quarter sales figures in late January 2026, likely around the 27th or 28th. Historically, the electric vehicle manufacturer releases production and delivery numbers in a brief press release preceding its quarterly earnings report. Wall Street analysts, according to FactSet and Bloomberg consensus data, anticipate a slowdown, with estimated deliveries hovering around 450,000 to 455,000 units.
Several factors are cited for this projected deceleration. The overall demand for electric vehicles has softened in recent years, compounded by increased competition from manufacturers like BYD and Nio. Additionally, consumer sentiment, macro-economic pressures, and the "pull forward" effect of the EV tax credit, which spurred demand in the third quarter, are expected to influence Tesla's fourth-quarter performance.
Despite these challenges, there are positive indicators for Tesla. Data from HundredX suggests that the company's brand value and net purchase intent have fully recovered from earlier dips in 2025. Furthermore, recent sales data from China shows the refreshed Model Y as the top-selling vehicle, indicating a potential turnaround in a key market.
