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Tax Refunds Inject $150B into Stocks
18 Feb
Summary
- Tax returns will add $150 billion to the stock market by end of March.
- S&P 500 historically rises 13% over six months after this signal.
- March and April see strong inflows into equity ETFs and mutual funds.

An estimated $150 billion in liquidity is expected to flow into the stock market by the end of March, driven by tax returns. This annual event, which sees about 64% of returns issued, historically acts as a significant 'buy' signal.
Analysts observe that the S&P 500 has a perfect track record of rising after this liquidity injection, averaging a 13% gain over the following six months.
Furthermore, March and April are typically strong months for both personal savings rates and inflows into equity exchange-traded funds and mutual funds, reinforcing the positive market outlook.




