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SpaceX Deal: $45 Billion Illusion Exposed
31 May
Summary
- AI company Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly for compute.
- Elon Musk clarified the $45 billion deal is a six-month lease.
- SpaceX's Starlink is profitable, but rocket business incurs losses.
A disclosure in SpaceX's S-1 filing suggested a lucrative arrangement where AI firm Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion monthly for compute capacity through May 2029, totaling approximately $45 billion. This figure was widely interpreted as a multi-year contract, bolstering SpaceX's valuation ahead of its planned IPO.
However, Elon Musk later clarified on X that the agreement is actually a 180-day lease, terminable with a 90-day notice. This critical distinction means the substantial financial commitment is short-term. Investors would have otherwise modeled a long-term deal based on the prospectus.
SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion and operating profit. In contrast, the rocket business, including Falcon and Dragon, generated $4.1 billion in revenue but sustained losses, largely due to $3 billion invested in Starship research and development.
