Russia's Oil Revenue Halved Before War Boost

Russia's oil tax revenue plummeted by nearly half in March compared to the previous year, yielding 494.9 billion rubles ($6.18 billion). This substantial decrease in earnings was calculated using February's Urals crude prices, which averaged below $45 per barrel due to sanctions and a stronger ruble. These lower revenues contributed to a widening budget deficit as Russia continues to fund its military operations.

However, the situation is poised for a dramatic reversal. The conflict in the Middle East, beginning in March, significantly boosted Urals crude prices, with barrels trading above $120 by the end of the month. This surge, coupled with US waivers allowing increased purchases by countries like India, is expected to lead to a sharp spike in Russia's oil and gas revenues in the near future.