India Fuels Russia's Post-Drone Refined Oil Needs

Russia, a major crude oil exporter, is now importing gasoline following extensive Ukrainian drone assaults on its refineries. In the last two months, India has become a crucial supplier, delivering nearly 1 million barrels of gasoline, with a significant portion originating from the Vadinar refinery. This surge in imports occurred as Russian refinery output dropped by up to 70% due to approximately 32 drone attacks between July and August.

Moscow's seaborne gasoline imports reached a record of about 125,000 barrels per day in August. Countries like India, Turkey, and Morocco have supplied fuel to Russia, which faces a growing deficit between domestic production and demand. Notably, some gasoline shipped from India might have been produced using Russian crude, indicating a complex reprocessing cycle.

All India-origin gasoline cargoes imported in August were transported using sanctioned vessels and involved covert ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean. Around 40% of Russia's total gasoline imports utilized these ship-to-ship transfers, often with vessels disabling their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals. Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until January 2027 and its diesel export ban until September 2026.

Analysts expect Russia to continue importing gasoline in the near future, citing the country's inherent lower yields in gasoline production compared to diesel. Despite these import efforts, Russia's diesel and gasoil exports through August 25 remained significantly below historical averages and the previous year.