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Peso Plummets: Relief Rally Short-Lived as Seasonal Woes Hit
13 Jul
Summary
- Philippine peso's recovery from US-Iran ceasefire is expected to be brief.
- Seasonal selling pressures are predicted to drive the peso to new record lows.
- The peso has historically weakened by an average of 1.6% in Q3 over ten years.
The Philippine peso's recent relief rally, spurred by an initial US-Iran ceasefire, is likely to be ephemeral. Analysts foresee seasonal selling pressures exerting significant influence, driving the peso towards unprecedented record lows against the US dollar. This anticipated depreciation challenges the optimism generated by international de-escalation efforts.
Historical data indicates a consistent pattern of peso weakness during the third quarter. Over the past decade, the peso has depreciated by an average of 1.6% against the dollar in this period, establishing it as a historically challenging time for the currency. This recurring trend points to a predictable seasonal slump.
As of 2026-07-13T00:47:55+00:00, the peso's short-term gains are overshadowed by these impending seasonal factors. The market's attention is now focused on whether the peso can overcome these persistent headwinds to avoid further record-breaking declines.
