ONGC eyes Venezuelan oil control: A major comeback?

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is set to become a focal point for investors as it moves towards securing operating rights for two Venezuelan oil projects within the next three to six months. Finance head Anupam Agarwal stated that ONGC is in advanced discussions with Venezuelan and US authorities regarding this development.

ONGC Videsh, the company's overseas arm, has over $500 million in pending dividends from its stakes in the San Cristobal and Carabobo 1 oilfields. These dividends are expected to be adjusted once the new operatorship agreements are finalized. Under the proposed terms, ONGC would transition from an investor to an operator, managing project operations and sales.

As of November 7, 2026, ONGC holds a 40% stake in the San Cristobal project and anticipates full operatorship, while it will take joint operatorship in the Carabobo project, where Indian companies collectively own an 18% stake.

In addition to its Venezuelan ventures, production from Russia's Sakhalin-1 project, in which ONGC has a 20% stake, averaged approximately 183,000 barrels per day from April to September 2026, remaining stable. ONGC's standalone net profit for the September quarter of FY27 surged by 57.3% year-on-year to ₹15,488.64 crore. This growth was fueled by higher realizations for crude oil and natural gas, despite a decrease in production volumes.

Despite the profit increase, Nuvama Institutional Equities maintains a cautious 'Reduce' rating on ONGC shares. The brokerage highlights the company's consistent failure to meet production guidance over the past eight years, with production declining at a CAGR of 2.4% and reserves falling at a CAGR of 2.7% over the last five years. Nuvama has marginally raised its target price to ₹224, citing higher near-term Brent crude price assumptions.