Oil Prices Surge on Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

Crude oil prices experienced a notable rebound, ascending for five consecutive days and pushing Brent above $62 a barrel and WTI past $58. This recovery follows a dip to early 2021 lows, which was initially spurred by expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that might reintegrate Russian oil. However, escalating geopolitical tensions have reversed this trend.

The United States has actively sought to disrupt Venezuela's oil exports, a minor global supplier, by seizing two oil tankers in the Caribbean. This action, along with potential interception of other sanctioned vessels, aims to curb revenue for the Venezuelan government and has affected Russian-linked tankers. President Trump indicated a willingness to retain seized oil and ships.

Simultaneously, Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russia's Volna terminal in the Krasnodar region, a significant energy supply hub situated near the vital Crimean Bridge. This strike, targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" tankers used to circumvent Western price caps, has undermined peace talk optimism and threatened further supply curtailments. Trading volumes, thinned by holiday activity, also contributed to price movements, with Commodity Trading Advisors covering some of their short positions.