AI Race Heats Up: NVDA Ships Vera Rubin, AMD's Helios Starts Ramp

NVIDIA is currently shipping its next-generation Vera Rubin platform, which is anticipated to lead to a rapid product ramp.

Management projects Vera Rubin will account for approximately 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3. The company has guided for $108 billion in Q3 revenue, with demand reportedly exceeding supply by 30%.

AMD's Helios rack, featuring EPYC Venice and MI450, is commencing its rollout, with significant increases expected in Q4 and the subsequent quarter.

AMD suggests Helios delivers up to 30% more tokens per dollar compared to competitors. The company also claims a $30 billion Instinct revenue estimate for 2027 may be conservative.

NVIDIA's economic advantage is substantial, with Vera Rubin projected to generate $40 billion per gigawatt, surpassing Blackwell's $25 billion. The company has a hyperscaler cloud backlog exceeding $2 trillion.

AMD's strategy involves customer diversification, securing commitments from major clients like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta for its MI450 accelerators.

The semiconductor industry is closely watching the performance of both companies over the next six months.

NVIDIA anticipates its margins to stabilize in Q4 around 71% to 72% due to memory cost inflation. AMD's performance hinges on Helios yields and its ability to deliver a substantial increase in Q4 shipments.

While NVIDIA appears to be the safer investment for the near term due to its secured ramp and intact margin structure, AMD presents a more exciting, albeit riskier, turnaround growth narrative.

AMD's valuation, with a trailing P/E of 154x compared to NVIDIA's 29x, leaves little room for error in its Q4 performance.

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