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NVIDIA: 50% Chance of $6 Trillion Valuation by Month's End
6 Oct
Summary
- NVIDIA options traders assign a 50% probability of reaching $6 trillion.
- A modest 4% stock increase would propel NVIDIA to the $6 trillion milestone.
- NVIDIA's board recently authorized an additional $150 billion for buybacks.
As of October 6, 2026, options traders are assigning a remarkable 50% probability that NVIDIA could achieve a $6 trillion market capitalization by October 30, 2026. This valuation would be met with approximately a 4% increase in the stock price, a move considered within the realm of normal market volatility. The current stock price is $238.90, with the $6 trillion mark equating to roughly $249 per share.
Further fueling optimism, NVIDIA's board of directors expanded its share buyback authorization by an additional $150 billion in late September 2026. This significant buyback, with $235 billion now authorized, is expected to gradually reduce the number of outstanding shares over several years. While NVIDIA's revenue and net income saw substantial year-over-year increases last quarter, its year-to-date stock gains have trailed the broader semiconductor sector, suggesting potential for further appreciation.
Market analysts remain bullish on NVIDIA's prospects. Morgan Stanley recently reinstated the company as its top chip stock pick, setting a $300 price target. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSMC) upcoming earnings report on October 15, 2026, will provide a crucial early indication of demand within the AI foundry sector.
